Web Extra: Economy on FIRE and in debt
In this week’s article on Thornburg Mortgage, I quoted former venture capitalist and author Eric Janszen on whether the housing crash that ultimately claimed one of Santa Fe’s largest employers could’ve been predicted or not.
Our phone interview ranged too far for that article, but we thought Janszen’s thoughts on capitalism’s boom-bust cycle and the rise of what he calls the “FIRE economy”—for finance, insurance and real estate—were worth sharing at length.
Basically, he thinks the government started selling everybody out to big creditors decades ago, and the massive debt burden that resulted has paralyzed the economy.
Janszen, who lives in Boston, also has some thoughts on the federal recovery plan, with its focus on “green jobs”: “How many mortgage brokers does it take to screw in an energy-saving lightbulb?” he asks.
You write the punchline.
SFR INTERVIEWS ERIC JANSZEN
I liked your Harper’s article on the housing bubble.
Thanks. It seems to be panning out.
That was back in early 2008, when many people hadn’t yet grasped the extent of the subprime mortgage crisis. But you went so far as to predict the next bubble—green energy.
I’m actually working on a book on that. So far it does seem likely to focus on infrastructure.
The refrain I keep hearing was that nobody saw the real estate crash coming. You say people could’ve seen it coming.
Many people did, of course. And many people who did made money on seeing it coming. It wasn’t all that hard. There were a few fantasies you had to not buy into. One is that housing prices always go up, and stock prices always go up.
If any other product was sold based on those premises, you’d think people would be somewhat skeptical. It’s pretty marvelous to convince so many people of something that can’t possibly be true.
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